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Washington Watch: Iran may be bombastic, but Pakistan has the Bomb
By DOUGLAS BLOOMFIELD; jpost.com/ ; 06-09-2008
If you think Iran is scary, just consider what would happen if Islamic
extremists took over Pakistan. It's a very real possibility in that
increasing worrisome country that helped spawn to the Taliban, and which
Foreign Policy magazine has called "the country most likely to transfer
nuclear technology to terrorists." That is the conclusion of 69 of 100
national security experts surveyed for the publication's "Terrorism Index
2008." More than half responded that Pakistan is "most likely to serve as
al-Qaida's next home base."
"We're all really worried that a radical theocracy like Iran will get the
bomb, but what if the bomb gets a radical theocracy?" asked a Washington
defense analyst speaking on background.
Iran may be getting all the attention from Israel and the United States, but
shaky Pakistan is the only Islamic nuclear power.
Iran may boast of great strides in its pursuit of nuclear, missile and
satellite technology, but analysts say its progress is no match for its
overblown rhetoric.
BUT PAKISTAN doesn't need to boast. It already has a stockpile estimated at
60 or more nuclear warheads and North Korean ballistic missiles and US-made
F-16s to deliver them; target one is India, but in the hands of an extremist
Islamist regime that could easily shift to Israel.
Washington has reportedly spent more than $100 million to help secure
Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, although it does not even know its size or
location.
Pakistan is a failed nation state. It has an unstable government on the
verge of collapse, a tenuous flirtation with democracy, a coup-inclined
military with ties to the Taliban, and an upcoming presidential election in
which the front-runner's lawyers contend he suffers from dementia and
depression. It also has sold nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North
Korea.
Growing Islamization of state institutions and policies, notably the
schools, is legitimizing religious extremism. Many Taliban trace their roots
to Pakistani madrassas.
MOST IMPORTANT, Pakistan's porous border with Afghanistan is a sanctuary and
training ground for the Taliban resurgence and al-Qaida. Osama bin Laden is
believed to be holed up in those areas which are more hospitable to the
Islamic extremists than the Pakistani government and army, which has been
unable or unwilling to do much about it.
In fact, Western experts believe elements of Pakistan's military and its
powerful intelligence service, ISI, are working with the Taliban. The new
army leader, Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani, recently stepped down as head of the
agency.
Pakistan, said the defense analyst, is "the scariest place on Earth." It
could splinter if powerful ethnic groups like the Pashtun and the Baluch
seek to break away and form their own states. Or there could be yet another
military coup, this time led by the ISI elements close to the Taliban.
Hamid Karzai, the pro-US president of Afghanistan, has accused Pakistan of
giving the Taliban sanctuary and bases to attack his country, and ISI has
been accused of being behind attempts on his life.
A recent Council on Foreign Relations report said ISI is believed to have
links to terrorist groups in several countries, including England, India,
Afghanistan and Iraq.
ISI-Taliban cooperation goes back nearly 30 years, and many of its agents
"have ethnic and cultural ties to Afghan insurgents and naturally sympathize
with them," according to Frederic Grare of the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace.
Author Steve Coll, an expert on the Taliban, has called it "an asset of the
ISI" and "a proxy force, a client of the Pakistan army." The Pentagon sees
the deteriorating situation in Pakistan as increasingly dangerous. The
chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, flew out to the
Indian Ocean last week to convene a highly unusual secret meeting of senior
American and Pakistani commanders aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham
Lincoln.
His message: You've got to do more to combat the militants who have found
sanctuary in the border areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan and are
responsible for the rising number of US and NATO casualties. He wants
Pakistan to allow US Special Operations forces to operate more freely in
those areas.
THERE ARE serious questions as to which side the Pakistani military and ISI
are really on. US President George W. Bush has reportedly complained that
some ISI elements are leaking US intelligence information to the Taliban and
aiding militants' attacks on US and NATO forces in Afghanistan.
A coup led by pro-Taliban elements would put that country's nuclear arsenal
in the hands of some of the world's most dangerous Islamic extremists.
Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid writes that "Islamic extremism is gaining
strength" in his country, and warns that the army may insist that a
pro-Taliban Islamic party, the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam, be part of any future
government.
Pakistan may be the greatest challenge awaiting the next president of the
United States, but so far it has been getting scant attention in either
campaign.
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Baloch ceasefire is welcome
06.09.2008 ; dailytimes.com.pk/
After a flurry of “pipeline attacks” in Balochistan that actually increased
the load-shedding hours across Pakistan, the Baloch militants suddenly
announced a ceasefire last Monday. Everyone thought it was the usual Ramazan
ceasefire on the part of the Baloch nationalists fighting the government.
Some thought it would not hold. But since Monday there have been no reports
of sabotage or bombing from any part of Balochistan. No pipelines have been
blown up. No policeman or soldier has been killed.
The announcement of a ceasefire came from Beebargh Baloch and Sirbaz Baloch
of the Baloch Liberation Army and Baloch Republican Army. This was unusual
even though they denied having entered any deal with the government. That
the announcement was unpredicted was proved when political circles in Quetta
reacted positively, “albeit with surprise, to the two organisations’ sudden
decision to stop militant activities”. For once everyone thought this was a
prelude to some kind of binding settlement between the Baloch and the PPP.
This was substantiated by former senator Mr Sanaullah Baloch on Tuesday when
he welcomed the ceasefire declaration and termed it “a good omen for the
province”. Mr Baloch had resigned from the Senate in despair which he felt
at the reaction or lack of it shown by the government to the killing of the
Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Bugti. In all his interviews he was at pains to
stress the separatist elements in the Baloch argument because he appeared
clearly doubtful about the ability of the federation to save the province
from its descent into absolute alienation.
Although the PPP had taken the first steps towards improving the situation
in Balochistan after the military operation there under President Musharraf,
it wasn’t followed up with action. Mr Asif Ali Zardari had “apologised” to
the Baloch nation for the killing of Nawab Bugti, and his party had last
February called for an end to the military operation in the province, but
further movement was so slow that the consensus built by the PPP chief
minister of Balochistan, Nawab Aslam Raisani, was fraying at the edges. Then
in the last week of August things began to look up even though the release
of ex-chief minister Mengal came too late and was considered too little.
Mr Rehman Malik, the prime minister’s adviser on interior, has played a
significant role in this. He announced on August 28 that the names of all
political leaders of Balochistan had been removed from the Exit Control List
(ECL) and 35 checkpoints of the Frontier Corps in the province were being
abolished. At the end of his two-day visit to Quetta Mr Rehman stood
together with chief minister Raisani and said, “The name of Nawab Khair
Bakhsh Marri’s son, Nawabzada Gazain Marri, has been removed from the ECL
and a new passport has been issued to him”. Mr Malik said he had also met
the sardar-in-exile, Mr Gazain Marri, in Dubai “on the directive of PPP’s
co-chairman Mr Zardari” and that he was likely to return to the country
soon.
More contacts heretofore not explored seriously were made too. Mr Rehman
Malik disclosed in Quetta that he had met the PKMAP chief, Mr Mehmood Khan
Achakzai, the JWP leader Nawabzada Talal Akbar Bugti and other leaders and
discussed Balochistan with them. He announced that all the detained
political workers of Balochistan would be released and cases registered
against them would be dropped after a committee formed to investigate their
cases had forwarded its recommendations.
Balochistan was put on the back-burner — with lethal effect because of the
pipeline blowing — after President Musharraf put India into the equation. He
said he was “a thousand percent sure” the money was coming from the Indians
ensconced in Afghanistan. The accepted wisdom in Pakistan is: if you want to
bring any discussion of reconciliation to a close, make a reference to
India. So anybody reaching out to India is contaminated and has to be
exterminated like vermin. Most leaders now enjoying the support of the
people in Pakistan have been labelled and persecuted thus. But the rational
way to tackle India’s penetration is to move closer to the people and work
more diligently to remove their grievances even if that means spending a
little more from the federal kitty. Paradoxically, it is only when people
living inside a federation feel “free of control” that that they become
loyal to it.
Mr Rehman Malik is to be praised for the hard work he has single-handedly
put into bringing the Baloch to the negotiating table. He must now bring the
exiled leaders back into the mainstream. That is the challenge.
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Will Zardari Prove
Us Cynics Wrong?
By Nasim Zehra ; 8 September 2008 ;
khaleejtimes.com/
That the new Pakistan President, Asif Zardari,
is a mixed bag is undeniable. His eleven years in jail, the controversially
ownership of Surrey Palace and much more, the inability of Pakistani courts
during the Nawaz and Musharraf eras to convict Zardari, ............
the NRO under which he was released of all corruption cases and reportedly
millions of dollars stashed in property and bank account was released to
him, and his being party to the US-brokered power transfer arrangement, are
all part of that mixed bag.
Then, the two new questions: one of his mental health and the other of the
source of his the cash deposited in his Swiss accounts, his medical
condition was explained by the information minister as arising out of his
solitary confinement for several years and that he overcome it. The question
regarding the source of his income, however, remains unanswered. This
personally controversial individual has scored well in the first round of
power and politics in the post-Musharraf democratic Pakistan.
While the broken agreement primarily over the judges has kept Pakistan’s
other largest political party, the PML-N, away from Zardari, the rest of
Pakistan democratic political forces have veered towards him. The ANP, MQM,
BNP, JUI-F, the PPP(Sherpao) and even Qazi Husain Ahmed have announced that
they will accept him as president.
This support is, after all, political, flowing from barter arrangements.
With a prime minister from his own party, President Zardari will be in a
position to enter into multiple agreements in exchange for support for his
presidency. Some of the agreements, however, seem to have been already
honoured; the Ramazan ceasefire and the re-opening of Jamia-e-Fareedia in
Islamabad for instance. His key tactician in major complex political cum
security issues, advisor Rehman Malik, has contributed to these
arrangements. The near midnight announcement by the Balochistan Liberation
Army of a ceasefire also is a result of Malik’s Dubai, Kabul and London
meetings and communications, direct and indirect, with Baloch leaders in
self-exile.
In his hasty yet democratic journey towards the presidency there were
reservations regarding Zardari in the khaki camp. Playing yet his ultimate
balancing role while staying within constitutional parameters the army
chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, rejected all uniformed and civilian advice to
promote the Bangladesh model. In the early August corps commanders’ meeting
Kayani heard some of his men repeat the stories of the PPP government’s
strategic shift away from China and towards America, the softening on India,
the dilution in Pakistan’s position on the nuclear issue, the many
circulating stories of extortion from businessman at the behest of the PPP
leadership.
Some believe the democratic system should continue. Perhaps mindful of the
army’s own multiple and complex involvement in internal security crises and
the border problems, its limited yet critical role in fighting the
international war on terrorism, and his experiential wisdom that armies are
no fixing force for a state and society needing reform, Kayani ruled that
the army would only perform its constitutional duties and though direct
communication between the PPP co-chairman and the army. In this context, the
concerns of the army and of its allied institution have been periodically
conveyed to Zardari. The man armed with increasing democratic authorities
has stayed the course of his travel plan into the presidency.
The PPP co-chairman seems to be a mere three days away from the presidency.
After his taking over as president there will be eight issues of concern.
One, while delivering on the many “IOUs” to the political partie supporting
him will the problems of Balochistan, the NWFP and the militancy, which
should be resolved in a sustainable manner for the concerned parties while
strengthening the federation. Two, will a one-man show be strengthened or
the parliamentary system be strengthened by honouring the earlier PPP
commitment of implementing the Charter of Democracy and also the Seventeenth
Amendment be repealed?
Three, will the PPP and the opposition ensure that checks and balances be
strengthened by making the parliamentary and Senate Committees more
competent and vigilant? Four, will the ways of governance be improved
through adopting transparent ways in hiring and firing, in resource
allocation and policy formulation? The appointments to date in key posts
have largely been on the basis of loyalty and its past record of filling
government and semi-government positions at all levels has been one of
largely hiring PPP supporters. Pakistan’s economy, the second-worst
performing after Burma in Asia, cannot afford messed-up governance.
Five, what systems are in place to making government deals transparent and
free of major corruption possibilities? Six, in formulating security and
foreign policy, will there be input of all stakeholders including the
Parliament, technocrats and security institutions? This area requires
particular attention, especially given that the government’s leading men,
including Zardari himself, have worked very closely at a personal level with
the Americans in achieving his political objectives. Hence, the need to make
major policy moves transparent is crucial The concerns that the PPP
government may move away from China as a strategic partner too need to be
addressed through informed debate on the state of the relationship.
Six, a crucial factor for the strengthening of democracy will be
civil-military relations. The armed forces remain a major stakeholder in the
security of Pakistan, and hence will have to be engaged with trust and
respect, but strictly within the parameters laid down by the Constitution.
Already there are unconfirmed stories about key PPP men provided lists by
the US of individuals who must be removed from senior positions within
security institutions.
Seven, will the PPP play a zero-sum game with its only major political
opponent, the PML-N? While competitiveness is at the core of politics, the
PPP will have to play by democratic rules. The real test of its democratic
credentials will come in its handling of its only real opposition party, one
that may soon expand if the PML-Q returns to its parent party.
Eight, what form does the judiciary finally take? Obviously, the PPP refused
to opt for the best, the most correct and most credible route to restoration
of the deposed judges. Now, will the new president restore all the judges,
including Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry? And on what scale of integrity
and compete will the restored judges perform?
The answers to these questions will determine the future health of this
setup and its survivability. With a fiercely independent media and an alert
and demanding society, plus with virtually no margin of error available to
the rulers in times of scarcity and multiples crisis, undemocratic,
scheming, inefficient and corrupt governments will not last their term.
Meanwhile, with the belief that democracy is the best system for managing
state and society it is not possible to deny Zardari’s right to be
president. He has all but won democratically the post of the president.
Against the backdrop of the many controversies he will be a very high-risk
president. For many selfish reasons that all flow from the fact that
Pakistan is the only home we have, we can only hope that Zardari defies the
“dark predictions” made by many of us regarding his presidency. The
democratic checks may just make it happen. Good Luck, Pakistan!
Nasim Zehra is an Islamabad-based national security strategist
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